An important signal in the latest house prices in 70 cities is the "first time" in the second half of the year

The sales price of new commercial housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, the same rate of decline as last month. In November, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 51 cities had a month-on-month decrease in the sales price of new commercial housing, 7 less than the previous month; 62 cities had a month-on-month decrease in the sales price of second-hand housing, the same number as the previous month.

China News Service, December 15th (China News Finance reporter Zuo Yukun) On December 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in November 2022.

On the whole, in November, the sales prices of commercial housing in all tier cities fell month-on-month, the year-on-year increase in first-tier cities fell, and the year-on-year decline in second- and third-tier cities slowed down.

There have been new changes in the market.

The new year is coming, is it suitable to consider buying a house?

Data map: A view of the city.

Photo by Chinanews.com reporter Zuo Yukun

Signs of house price decline narrowing

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November, the sales price of commercial housing in first-tier cities fell slightly from the previous month, while the decline in second- and third-tier cities narrowed or remained the same as last month.

Specifically, the sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively, and the rate of decline increased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in second-tier cities decreased by 0.2% and 0.4% month-on-month respectively, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The sales price of new commercial housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, the same rate of decline as last month.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, pointed out that based on simple arithmetic average calculations, the price index of new commercial housing in 70 cities across the country rose by -0.2% month-on-month and -2.3% year-on-year in November; The data are -0.5% and -3.7% respectively.

In Yan Yuejin's view, the signal that the decline in the house price index has narrowed deserves special attention, indicating that policies such as the "16 Financial Measures" and "Three Arrows" in the fourth quarter have objectively corrected the expectations of real estate companies, and the housing pricing strategy It also started to change.

"The acceleration of the guaranteed delivery of buildings, the relief of housing enterprises' funding, and the release effect of increased demand-side policies have all had an effect on the stability of housing prices." Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban Planning, said.

In addition, in November, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 51 cities had a month-on-month decrease in the sales price of new commercial housing, 7 cities less than the previous month; 62 cities had a month-on-month decrease in the sales price of second-hand housing, the same number as the previous month.

This is also the first time in the second half of the year that the number of cities in which new house prices have fallen has decreased month-on-month.

Yan Yuejin believes that this phenomenon is due to the adjustment of the pricing strategy of real estate companies, which will also help guide changes in market expectations.

In November 2022, the sales price index of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

Housing prices in hot cities are now divided

Judging from the cities with month-on-month increases in new housing in November, there are not only first-tier cities Beijing and Shanghai, but also Hangzhou, Nanjing, Changsha, and Chengdu.

However, during the same period, the month-on-month decline of new housing prices in Guangzhou and Shenzhen both reached 0.5%, which led to the continued expansion of the month-on-month decline in new housing prices in first-tier cities, but the decline in second- and third-tier cities narrowed, showing that policy effects, price reduction effects, and expected effects have a certain driving effect on sales.

As first-tier cities, why do Guangzhou-Shenzhen and Beijing-Shanghai have opposite housing price trends?

Li Yujia believes that, first of all, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are the places where Guangdong-based real estate companies are most concentrated. The difficulties faced by real estate companies will lead to price cuts at the developer level; secondly, compared with Beijing and Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have a higher proportion of foreign population buying houses, and the epidemic has affected foreign population buying houses. and investment properties.

Of course, we should not ignore that in November, the house prices of new houses in 51 cities still fell year-on-year and month-on-month.

Li Yujia believes that combined with the month-on-month decline in the sales area and amount of commercial housing in November, and the year-on-year decline is still expanding, it means that this slowdown in decline should be structural.

"Policy adjustments release part of the demand for improvement, and because the policy is unprecedentedly favorable and interest rates are at a record low, part of the investment demand is optimistic about the cost-effective high-priced houses in the central area, and enter the market ahead of schedule." Li Yujia said.

Zhang Bo, director of the 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, also pointed out that the increase in sales promotion by real estate companies and changes in the supply structure are the main reasons for the price changes of new houses.

In addition, from the perspective of the second-hand housing market, the overall cooling trend of the market is more obvious than that of new housing, which can be clearly seen from the month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in some first-tier cities.

"The expansion of the downward trend of second-hand housing in first-tier cities also shows that the market was at a historical low in November, and the bottom of the market has gradually become clear."

Second-hand housing sales price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities in November 2022.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

What is the future direction of the market? Boosting confidence is key

Regarding the future market trend, industry analysts believe that it should be considered separately from the supply side of the real estate enterprise side and the demand side of home buyers.

"The current driving force for the stabilization of housing prices lies not in the boosting level of housing sales data, but in the improvement of the financial situation of housing companies." Yan Yuejin believes that, unlike the past "stable transactions lead to stable housing prices", at present it is more inclined to "stabilize housing prices." Then the housing price is stable' logic.

Next, we must actively combine the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies and the recovery of market fundamentals to actively stabilize housing prices, expectations and confidence.

"Policies came out frequently in November, but more efforts were made on the supply side to solve the financing problems of real estate companies, which is more significant in effectively preventing and resolving risks in the real estate market." Zhang Bo believes that the recovery of confidence on the demand side has not yet been achieved in November. Obviously, the market is still at the bottom, so house prices will not turn from falling to rising soon.

Zhang Bo also believes that with the continuous optimization of the epidemic prevention and control policy starting in December, the overall positive trend of the social economy will be more obvious, which will play a fundamental role in stimulating the entry of the demand side.

Recently, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Strategic Planning Outline for Expansion of Domestic Demand (2022-2035)". The overall thinking and direction of real estate regulation have not changed. The housing system that houses are not for speculation and renting and purchasing is still the top priority .

Zhang Bo predicts that although the trend of stabilization and recovery of the real estate market will become clearer in the next six months, housing prices will still not rise sharply. It is expected that cities of different levels will stabilize and recover in rotation.

Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, also believes that corporate financing support policies have accelerated the substantive progress of guaranteed delivery of buildings, and improved demand support policies such as tax rebates for house replacement have promoted the release of demand. It is expected that the market will gradually show a trend of stabilizing volume and price in 2023.

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