Final jobs report before Election Day shows US economy added 12,000 positions amid strikes and storms

# U.S. Job Gains for October Hit by Temporary Factors

The U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, making it the weakest monthly job gain since December 2020. This figure is a significant drop from September's 223,000 revised total and far below expectations of a 112,500-job increase. The fragile data is clouded by temporary factors, including the aftermath of two major hurricanes and extensive labor strikes which disrupted data collection.

Economists indicate that the reported numbers should be considered with caution due to these distortions. The hurricanes affected regions where the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faced challenges in gathering employment data, further complicated by a shorter-than-usual data collection period. Despite the turbulent job figures, the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%, signaling underlying labor market resilience.

The hurricanes, which struck on September 26 and October 9, hampered data collection in the affected areas, impacting the establishment survey used to compile jobs data. This survey took into account workers only if they received pay during the surveyed pay period, affecting accuracy amidst the storms. The BLS notes that response rates were significantly lower than average, yet no adjustments to estimation processes were made for the weather effects.

Job sectors showed mixed performance in October. Health care and government jobs increased, while the leisure and hospitality sector reduced by 4,000 jobs – an anticipated hurricane impact. Temporary help services, professional and business services, and manufacturing suffered the largest losses, with strikes in the manufacturing field being a contributing factor.

Labor force participation slightly declined to 62.6%, reflecting a stable trend throughout the year. Average earnings grew modestly by 0.4% monthly, sustaining a 4% annual rate, indicating a slowdown from previous rapid wage growth post-pandemic.

Despite the complex environment, some analysts forecast further improvements in jobs data as conditions normalize. Through October, the U.S. continued to see average monthly gains of 170,000 jobs. Expectations are for continued moderation in job and wage growth, potentially influencing economic growth into the following year.